April 21, 2004: #01
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Political Earthquakes-- Can John Kerry walk straight during a Left-Quake? War in Iraq; National Security; Ted Kennedy, Howard Dean, Ralph Nader, Al Gore, Jacques Chirac, MoveOn, Hillary Clinton, forget political geological history of Left-Quakes producing Landslides.·
John Kerry faces a daunting task. No only does he understand that a majority of Americans do not want a "Vietnam-type" or "Somalia-Type" solution even if they were to accept the battle cry of the Ted Offensive by the Offensive Ted claiming Iraq is "another Vietnam," he seems to also genuinely understand that it is imperative that Iraq not become a failed state and, hence, a haven for terrorists as was Afghanistan and as are Somalia and portions of Lebanon controlled by Syria. Thus, the closer he moves to supporting George Bush's long-term vision for Iraq, the further he moves from the radical Left which dominates a large portion of "most likely" voters among Democrats. The further he moves from them, the weaker is his support among those who favored Howard Dean, Ralph Nader or Dennis Kucinich-- i.e., the Deniacs, the Naderites and the Kucinichistas.
Activists most intensely motivated by visceral hatred of Bush-- i.e., those supporting MoveOn, Media Fund, etc.-- will support Kerry no matter what, but many of the far-left idealogues, tree-huggers and Pantheopians will desert Kerry for embracing Bush's vision. On the other hand, if Kerry were to try to wholly embrace the Bush-haters' agenda, he would lose far more among the non-far-left liberal and moderately liberal, Democratic voters than he would gain among the Deniacs, Naderites and Kucinichistas.
To Kerry's credit, he has refused to embrace Offensive Ted's Ted
Offensive, but to his discredit, he has refused to repudiate the
morally offensive attacks on Bush by Ted Kennedy. Kerry also wants to
court the Naderites, but do do so, he must embrace the impeach-Bush rhetoric
being spouted by Ralph
Nader a.k.a. Darth Nader a.k.a. Ralph Vader.
What will Kerry do? Notwithstanding Kerry's anti-war activism in the 1970's, one need not be a supporter of Kerry to recognize that a man who drove his swift-boat into a hail of gunfire to save a comrade will be unwilling to embrace the peace-at-any-cost philosophy of the Naderites and Kucinichistas. If so, what does that mean. It means Bush will win by a landslide. In contrast, if Kerry were to embrace the peace-at-any-price crowd, Bush will win by an even larger landslide.
If this were to be correct, what should be Kerry's best strategy? He should embrace the Bush vision as his own strategy and thereby position himself as a statesman unwilling to play politics in ways that could jeopardize lives of our troops and the ability of Iraq to become a stable democracy. Although this strategy might seem to the Bush-haters to be folly, it would be the political equivalent of driving his political swift-boat into a hail of political gunfire to put the long term interests of the country ahead of his own narrow interests. However, by doing so, he would thereby dramatically enhance his stature as a candidate to succeed Bush in 2008.
Other evidence is about to emerge from the scandal of bribery and kickbacks in
the administration of the "Oil for Food" program for Iraq that will
expose the back-stabbing motives of the French and Germans in not only refusing
to support enforcement of the resolution they approved but also working behind
the scenes to stab Colin Powell in the back. This will make even more
untenable the theme Kerry has been playing thus far-- i.e., that it was George
Bush's lack of diplomatic skills rather than French, German and Russian
mendacity that prevented assemblage of a United Nations coalition to depose
Hussein. I think he'll drive his political swift boat into the blazing
gunfire of the far, far left and position himself to be the strongest, most
statesman-like contender in 2008.
--Jim Wrenn, Editor at PoliSat.Com
Daily Update immediately preceding the one above.
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