Jan. 18, 2004: PoliSat
.Com's
Political Satire/
Commentary
Daily Update #
01·· ™©·2004··
Where the satire is always commentary, but the commentary isn't always satire
(but you'll know the difference)·
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John Kerry will be the Un-Dean, Un-Clark, Un-Hackneyed, Un-Untested, Un-Bush Democratic nominee.·
Regardless of whether the fervor of Howard Dean's true believers and/or
Gephardt's caucus-veteran loyalists overcome the apparent last-minute surges of
John Kerry and John Edwards in Iowa, and regardless of whether Dean and Clark
remain competitive after Super Tuesday, John Kerry will become the
Democratic nominee. Kerry will then genuflect to the Clinton wing by
offering the second spot to Hillary, who will decline, and then Kerry will pick
either John Edwards or Harold Ford as his VP nominee.
Why? Because Democratic activists, a majority of whom do not support Dean
and think he couldn't possibly win, will perceive Kerry as the Un-Dean,
Un-Clark, Un-Hackneyed, Un-Bush, Un-Untested Democratic nominee. Even
though Kerry often conveys a muddled message, he's less prone to Dean's
shoot-from-the-lip arrogance and expresses his anti-Bush views in a less
vitriolic manner than Dean, so he's the Un-Dean. Even though he's taken
inconsistent positions on the war in Iraq, his positions on Iraq (and on
politics in general) are less erratic than those of Wesley Clark. Kerry's
military record, his ability to avoid shooting himself in the lip, and his
lack of an erratic political past make him the Un-Clark. Kerry's not
having been a nearly perpetually unsuccessful candidate for the nomination makes
him the Un-Hackneyed (i.e., Un-Gephardt). During this process, both
the Gore wing and the Hillary Wing will try to discredit Kerry (without leaving
their political fingerprints in doing so) because neither wing wants a Democrat
to win in 2004 and thereby foreclose a 2008 candidacy by Hillary or Gore.
However, since both wings would want to avoid being "caught" trying to
undermine Kerry's candidacy, neither one will be able to effectively discredit
him.
Kerry's proven heroism will make him a formidable candidate against a war-time
President. His heroism, plus his having voted for the resolution
authorizing Operation Iraqi Freedom, will immunize him from the too-naive,
too-erratic, too-hackneyed, too-un-experienced arguments Bush could make against
Dean, Clark, Gephardt or Edwards. The angry, fervent
"movement" that initially gravitated to Dean will support Kerry
enthusiastically to avoid the Nader effect that many of them perceive as having
cost Gore the 2000 election. A Kerry candidacy presents the best
opportunity for the country to make a rational choice between the parties.
Kerry's greatest difficulty will be to distance himself from the vitriolically
anti-Bush support he's likely to receive from the fervent, angry
"Dean" wing of the Democratic Party.
If Iraq were to appear to be on the road to successful transition into a
non-hostile country potentially able to become a force for less-undemocratic,
less-human-rights-violating government in the Middle East, Bush will win unless
the economy takes a nose dive. If Iraq were to have become a force for
instability or fanaticism, Bush will lose even if the economy is doing
well.
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Regardless of whether the fervor of Howard Dean's true believers and/or
Gephardt's caucus-veteran loyalists overcome the apparent last-minute surges of
John Kerry and John Edwards in Iowa, and regardless of whether Dean and Clark
remain competitive after Super Tuesday, John Kerry will become the
Democratic nominee. Kerry will then genuflect to the Clinton wing by
offering the second spot to Hillary, who will decline, and then Kerry will pick
either John Edwards or Harold Ford as his VP nominee. 
