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	Election 2004 - "Exit-Poll Disinformation Hoax Backfires?" Part IV Manipulated Exit-Poll Data for Lethal Affect on Republican Voter Turnout - January 2005 Statistical Analysis of Disinformation Exit Polls by Col. John H. Wambough, Jr. USAF (Ret.) j-bwambough@cox.net - www.nsar.us Election Reform: Count Votes - No More Winner Projections by Democrat Manipulated Exit Polls   Permanent Link:  http://WrennCom.Com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m02d19-01.asp. [February 19, 2005]	Col. John H. Wambough, Jr          USAF (Ret.)
	Statistical Analysis of Disinformation Exit Polls - Whether the CACTECH/MIT Voting Technology Project (and December 5th Addendum) or analysis being done by statisticians such as Stephen F. Freeman (who likely understates sampling errors for Election 2004 exit polls), their analysis is mainly focused on the backend of the exit-poll controversy (on data that emerged after polls closed). My concerns are at the front-end with the early disinformation data (before any polls closed) that hoodwinked the American people into believing Kerry would win the election. Why would any exit-polling company circulate data to the broadcast Networks that Kerry was winning in a landslide in Pennsylvania by 20 points,  Minnesota by 18 points,  Wisconsin by 9 points and  New Hampshire by 18 points? Which National Network was this data suppose to help in its Election Day analysis? What were trained election statisticians suppose to do with false data?    The National Networks use of exit polling in Elections 2000 and 2004 suggest that their primary purpose for exit polls is to assist Democrats win elections. Election Day exit-poll analysis appears secondary to getting a Democrat in the White House. Influencing the outcome of National Elections via early exit-poll disinformation has become the Election Day modus operandi of the Networks.  To understand exit-polls, visit "Mystery Pollster - Demystifying the Science and Art of Political Polling" and "Exit-Polls: What You Should Know" and Have the Exit Polls Been Wrong Before? - By Mark Blumenthal. For those concerned about voting machine accuracy, suggest "Voting Machines and the Underestimate of the Bush Vote" by CALTECH/MIT Voting Technology Project (and the December 5th Addendum). Also, suggest reading: “A Tour of the 2004 Exit Poll: What it Says and What it Doesn’t” By Roy Telxeira.   Comparing National Election Pool (NEP) Exit-Poll Data and Data Indicating a Kerry Landslide With Pre-Election Poll Averages and Actual Voting Results:   Table 1 –  NEP Exit-Poll Data (Disinformation), Shown on Drudge Report, Tuesday, November 2, 2004 at - 2:03:32 EST Table 2 – Early Exit-Poll Data (Disinformation), Indicating a Kerry Landslide to the American People (Uses Table 1 Data) Table 3 – Pre-Election Poll Averages 10/25-11/1, 2004 – Real Clear Politics.Com    Table 4 – Actual Voting Results – CBS News. Com - Campaign 2004 - Nov 2nd Election Table 1 - NEP Exit-Poll (Disinformation Data) – Published on Drudge Report, Election Day, 2:03:32 EST     AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH TOTAL  POINTS Kerry Lose 45 Lose 48 Lose 42 Win 60 Win 52 Win 51 Win 51 Win 50 Win 58 Win 52 Tie 49 Win 57 W8,T1,L3  615 Bush Win 55 Win 51 Win 57 Lose 40 Lose 48 Lose 48 Lose 47 Lose 48 Lose 40 Lose 43 Tie 49 Lose 41 W3,T1,L8 565   Table 2 - NEP Early Exit-Poll (Disinformation Data) - Indicating a Kerry Landslide to the American People  NEP Exit-Polls Indicated Kerry Winning By Pre-election Poll Averages Projected Kerry Winning By Actual Voting Results Showed Kerry Winning By  20 points in Pennsylvania (PA)            1 point in PA       2 points in PA             18 points in Minnesota (MN)                  3 points in MN       3 points in MN             9 points in Wisconsin (WI)                  1 point in WI    1 point in WI           16 points in New Hampshire (NH) 1 point in NH      1 point in NH                Table 3 - Real Clear Politics.Com Pre-Election Poll Averages (10/25-11/1, 2004) *Actual Voting Results were used for AZ and LA. To review poll averages and the pollster companies used to construct those averages, click on the state abbreviation     AZ *   CO  LA *  PA   OH  FL   MI  NM MN  WI Note  IA NH TOTAL  POINTS Kerry Lose 44.0 Lose 44.8 Lose 42.0 Win 48.2 Lose 46.7 Lose 47.6 Win 48.7 Lose 46.4 Win 48.7 Lose 46.8 Lose 47.1 Win 48.5 W4 - L8  560 Bush Win 55.0 Win 50.0 Win 57.0 Lose 47.3 Win 48.8 Win 48.2 Lose 45.2 Win 47.8 Lose 45.3 Win 47.7 Win 47.4 Lose 47.5 W8 - L4 565   Table 4 - Actual Voting Results –- CBS News. Com - Campaign 2004 - Nov 2nd Election To review election results, click on the state abbreviation      AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH TOTAL  POINTS Kerry Lost  44  Lost 47 Lost  42 Won 51 Lost  49 Lost 47 Won 51  Lost 49 Won 51 Won 50 Lost  49 Won 50 W5 L7  580  Bush Won 55 Won 52 Won 57  Lost 49 Won 51 Won 52 Lost  48 Won 50 Lost 48  Lost 49 Won 50 Lost 49 W7 L5   610   Table 1 (above). This table shows National Election Pool (disinformation) Exit-Poll "Raw" Data appearing on the Drudge Report at 2:03:32 EST on November 2, 2004 . These early exit polls are a national scandal. In the swing states, all exit polls were biased in favor of Kerry. We must ask why? The logical answer is that the exit-poll numbers were not derived from random samples of the voting population. "There was a time you could go to the bank with the early exit polls," Zogby said.” Now we have a problem." For the NEP to plead ignorance of the political impact that their disinformation would have on Election Day is beyond incredulity. NEP Exit Polling was used to mislead the American people into thinking Kerry would win the key battleground states of Ohio ,  Florida and other closely contested swing states and the national election in a landslide.  o         In the two non-swing states shown in this data (Kerry had no chance of winning Arizona and Louisiana ), NEP “early” data was virtually spot on with actual voting results - hmmm. A question for NEP: how come "early" exit polling for non-swing states was highly accurate yet this "early" exit polling data was off in swing states and always favoring Kerry? Dick Morris believes: "This was no mere mistake. Exit polls cannot be as wrong across the board as they were on election night. I suspect foul play."   o        NEP "Early" exit-poll raw data was used to validate a Kerry landslide to the American people. Given pre-election poll averages were so far out of whack with these early exit polls, why would this highly suspect data be released to the National Networks and subscribers if not for the purpose of influencing the national election in favor of Kerry? Of note, NEP (disinformation) data (Table 1) shows Kerry's percentages (in all cases) equal to or exceeding actual voting results. Table 2 (above). NEP Early Exit-Polls (disinformation) were clearly being used to convey to the American people that Kerry would win the election in a landslide. Percentages shown for these four states are outlandish. This "Early" exit-poll data was so far off the mark that it should have been an embarrassment for the pollsters to forward it to the National Networks and its subscribers. It is reasonable to speculate that "early" exit-poll "raw" data was not intended for use by the National Networks or subscribers but for the consumption of millions of Americans to chill Republican voter turnout and influence the outcome of Election 2004 in favor of Kerry. The Networks use of exit polls in Elections 2000 and 2004 suggest that their first priority for Election Day exit polls was to assist Democrats win National Elections.    Table 3 (above). The third table indicates the projected winner (in states shown) for the week immediately preceding Election Day 10/25-11/1. See Real Clear Politics (RCP) Poll Averages. Clicking on the state abbreviation allows you to review Real Clear Politics poll averages and the pollster companies used to construct those averages. Pre-election poll averages showed Bush as the projected winner for the battleground states of Ohio and Florida ; actual voting results confirmed this prediction; Bush won Ohio and Florida . WI Note: The winner of each state was predicted correctly by RCP poll averages except Wisconsin - which Kerry won by one percent. "Collectively, the pollsters were right. A Real Clear Politics average of all the national polls had Mr. Bush winning 50 percent to Mr. Kerry's 48.5 percent, which was only about a point off the actual results." Table 4 (above). The forth table shows actual voting results. To review, click the state abbreviation. Reference: CBS News. Com - Campaign 2004 - Nov 2nd Election. The early NEP exit-poll survey data (disinformation) exploited all the American people. It misled Democrats into thinking they were winning and Republicans into thinking they were losing. Millions of voting citizens were the target of a well orchestrated deception in the swing states. What other conclusion could one reach after reviewing the pre-election Real Clear Politics poll averages and actual voting results? Manipulated data (disinformation) was aimed at the swing states.  Why was it important for the Networks not to call the winner in any state (until after closing of all polls in a state) when their early raw data on the Internet showed Kerry winning the election in a landslide (well before a single poll closed)?   If pollster company exit-poll raw data was not assessed to be highly accurate, it should never have been released. Any organization with even limited political savvy would intuitively understand that high impact election data helpful to Kerry would be leaked (by members of the National Network consortium / subscribers) to the Internet (Drudge Report, etc.) and from there the information would be disseminated country-wide at warp speed.   The American people learned on the Drudge Report at 2:03:32 EST on November 2, 2004 that Kerry was destined to win the election in a landslide (disinformation) at the very time GWB was ahead in the election. Based on an unorthodox exit-polling sampling methodology (sampling more Kerry supporters than Bush supporters, etc.), the networks / pollsters / DNC / Kerry Campaign / 527s were able to benefit (once again) from exit-poll data manipulated to favor the Democrat Party candidate. The perpetrators of the deception have yet to be determined. This is a job for Congress.    Disinformation had another damaging impact on Republicans. It influenced when states were called for each candidate. When it was logical to call states for GWB -- CBS, ABC, NBC and CNN took no action using the misleading NEP exit-poll data as a basis for saying the race was too close to call. Using NEP data (disinformation), National Networks called states for the Democrats faster than they called states for the Republicans.   ·          How and when states are called for a candidate by the National Networks could impact the momentum of the election. These calls help maintain, advance or deflate campaign momentum. Based on how and when calls were made, it is clear that Networks sought to protect or advance Kerry's momentum (using manipulated exit poll data) while deflating GWB's momentum.   Aside from manipulated exit-poll data compromising the fairness of the election process, exit poll disinformation had an immediate impact on the stock market. Faced with the real prospect of Kerry becoming President, the stock market plummeted 100 points in the last two hours of trading. The financial markets had apparently already assessed (based on their own analysis) that GWB was going to win Election 2004. The early afternoon exit-poll raw data (indicating that Kerry would win the election in a landslide) caught investors completely by surprise. In addition to recognizing Rear Clear Politics' excellent pre-election predictions, suggest reading “Who nailed the election results? Automated Pollsters” by David Kenner and William Saletan. Also see Polling Report.  The National Networks use of exit polling in Elections 2000 and 2004 suggest that their primary purpose for exit polls is to assist Democrats win elections. Election Day exit-poll analysis appears secondary to getting a Democrat in the White House. Influencing the outcome of National Elections via exit-poll disinformation is now the Election Day modus operandi of the National Networks. Remember that the National Networks are paying for the disinformation data. They have a great responsibility for making sure that their exit-poll data is responsibly handled in a National Election.   Gaming NEP exit poll interviews, Democrat friendly demographics (skewed sampling) and a deficient pollster polling methodology – all combined to produce manipulated exit-poll data on Election Day. Our National Elections involve the trust of our people in an open and fair system. Having the National Networks and its Pollster Company's interfere (in a very significant way) with Election 2004 via disinformation is alarming but then to declare what they did proprietary is truly insulting to the public conscience. What we are witnessing is a collision between Public and Private Interests that need to be reconciled by Congress in favor of the American people.  Count votes - no more winner projections by exit polls.     Permanent Link to Part I:   http://WrennCom.Com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m01d07-01.asp.  Permanent Link to Part II:  http://WrennCom.Com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m01d31-01.asp. Permanent Link to Part III:  http://wrenncom.com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m02d05-01.asp. Permanent Link to Part IV:  http://wrenncom.com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m02d19-01.asp. Part V to be published soon.  (Editor's note: The delay in publishing Parts II and the remaining parts is attributable to scheduling problems of the Editor rather than any delay on the part of Col. Wambough.  Editor apologizes for these delays.)