2004 - "Exit-Poll Disinformation Hoax Backfires?" Part
Election Reform: Count Votes - No More Winner
Projections by Democrat Manipulated Exit Polls
Election Reform: Count Votes - No More Winner Projections by Democrat Manipulated Exit Polls
Permanent Link: http://WrennCom.Com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m02d19-01.asp.
[February 19, 2005]
Col. John H. Wambough, Jr
Analysis of Disinformation Exit Polls - Whether the CACTECH/MIT
Voting Technology Project (and
December 5th Addendum) or analysis being done by statisticians such as Stephen F.
Freeman (who likely understates sampling errors
for Election 2004 exit polls), their analysis is mainly
focused on the backend of the exit-poll controversy (on data that emerged
after polls closed). My concerns are at the front-end with the early
disinformation data (before any polls closed) that hoodwinked the American people into
believing Kerry would win the election. Why would any exit-polling company circulate data
to the broadcast Networks that Kerry was winning in a landslide in
The National Networks use of exit polling in Elections 2000 and 2004 suggest that their primary purpose for exit polls is to assist Democrats win elections. Election Day exit-poll analysis appears secondary to getting a Democrat in the White House. Influencing the outcome of National Elections via early exit-poll disinformation has become the Election Day modus operandi of the Networks. To understand exit-polls, visit "Mystery Pollster - Demystifying the Science and Art of Political Polling" and "Exit-Polls: What You Should Know" and Have the Exit Polls Been Wrong Before? - By Mark Blumenthal. For those concerned about voting machine accuracy, suggest "Voting Machines and the Underestimate of the Bush Vote" by CALTECH/MIT Voting Technology Project (and the December 5th Addendum). Also, suggest reading: “A Tour of the 2004 Exit Poll: What it Says and What it Doesn’t” By Roy Telxeira.
Election Pool (NEP) Exit-Poll Data and Data Indicating a Kerry Landslide
1 - NEP Exit-Poll (Disinformation Data) – Published on Drudge Report, Election Day,
2 - NEP Early Exit-Poll (Disinformation Data) - Indicating a Kerry Landslide to the
3 - Real
Clear Politics.Com Pre-Election Poll Averages (10/25-11/1,
Voting Results were used for AZ and LA. To review poll averages and the pollster
companies used to construct those averages, click on the state abbreviation
4 - Actual Voting Results –- CBS
News. Com - Campaign 2004 - Nov 2nd Election
review election results, click on the state abbreviation
In the two non-swing states
shown in this data (Kerry had no chance of winning
"Early" exit-poll raw data
was used to validate a Kerry landslide to the American people. Given pre-election poll
averages were so far out of whack with these early exit polls, why would this highly suspect
data be released to the National
Networks and subscribers
if not for the purpose of influencing the national election in favor of Kerry? Of note, NEP
(disinformation) data (Table 1) shows Kerry's percentages (in all cases) equal to or
exceeding actual voting results.
early NEP exit-poll survey data (disinformation) exploited all the American
people. It misled Democrats into thinking they were winning and Republicans into thinking they
were losing. Millions of voting citizens were the target of a well orchestrated deception
in the swing states. What other conclusion could one reach after reviewing the
Clear Politics poll averages and
actual voting results? Manipulated data (disinformation) was aimed at the swing states.
Why was it important for the Networks not to call the winner in any state (until after
closing of all polls in a state) when their early raw data on the Internet showed
Kerry winning the election in a landslide (well before a single poll closed)?
company exit-poll raw data was not assessed to be highly accurate, it should
never have been released. Any organization with even limited political savvy would
intuitively understand that high impact election data helpful to Kerry would be
leaked (by members of the National
Network consortium / subscribers)
to the Internet (Drudge Report, etc.) and from there the information would be
disseminated country-wide at warp speed.
American people learned on the Drudge Report at
had another damaging impact on Republicans. It
influenced when states were called for each candidate.
it was logical to call states for GWB
-- CBS, ABC, NBC and CNN took no action using the misleading NEP exit-poll data as a
basis for saying the race was too close to call. Using NEP data (disinformation), National
Networks called states for the Democrats faster than they called states for the
How and when states are called for a
candidate by the National Networks could impact the momentum of the election. These
calls help maintain, advance or deflate campaign momentum. Based on how and
when calls were made, it is clear that Networks sought to protect
or advance Kerry's momentum (using manipulated exit poll data) while deflating GWB's
from manipulated exit-poll data compromising the fairness of the election
process, exit poll disinformation had an immediate impact on the stock market.
Faced with the real prospect of Kerry becoming President, the stock market plummeted 100
points in the last two hours of trading. The financial markets had apparently already
assessed (based on their own analysis) that GWB was going to win Election 2004. The
early afternoon exit-poll raw data (indicating that Kerry would win the election in a
landslide) caught investors completely by surprise. In addition to recognizing Rear Clear
Politics' excellent pre-election predictions, suggest reading “Who
nailed the election results? Automated Pollsters”
by David Kenner and William Saletan. Also
see Polling Report.
Gaming NEP exit poll interviews, Democrat friendly demographics (skewed sampling) and a deficient pollster polling methodology – all combined to produce manipulated exit-poll data on Election Day. Our National Elections involve the trust of our people in an open and fair system. Having the National Networks and its Pollster Company's interfere (in a very significant way) with Election 2004 via disinformation is alarming but then to declare what they did proprietary is truly insulting to the public conscience. What we are witnessing is a collision between Public and Private Interests that need to be reconciled by Congress in favor of the American people. Count votes - no more winner projections by exit polls.
Permanent Link to Part I: http://WrennCom.Com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m01d07-01.asp.
Permanent Link to Part II: http://WrennCom.Com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m01d31-01.asp.
Permanent Link to Part III: http://wrenncom.com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m02d05-01.asp.
Permanent Link to Part IV: http://wrenncom.com/CommentaryArchives/2005/20y05m02d19-01.asp.
Part V to be published soon. (Editor's note: The delay in publishing Parts II and the remaining parts is attributable to scheduling problems of the Editor rather than any delay on the part of Col. Wambough. Editor apologizes for these delays.)
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